The World Economic Forum’s latest Global Risks Report has delivered a stark warning: escalating economic conflict between major powers is now viewed as the greatest threat to global stability. Released ahead of the WEF’s annual Davos gathering, the report highlights growing fears that sanctions, tariffs, and trade disputes could push the world into a new era of instability.
Based on insights from more than 1,300 experts and leaders across business, government, academia, and civil society, the report paints a picture of a world bracing for turbulence — not just politically, but economically and socially as well.
Economic Conflict Overtakes Every Other Global Threat
For the first time, “geoeconomic confrontation” has claimed the top spot among global risks for the coming year. This term refers to countries increasingly using economic weapons — such as trade barriers, sanctions, and export restrictions — as tools of political power.
Eighteen percent of respondents named this as the most likely trigger for a global crisis in 2026. It now ranks above misinformation, societal polarization, extreme weather, and even armed conflict between states.
The findings reflect a growing belief that rivalries between major powers are no longer confined to diplomacy or military posturing — they are playing out through disrupted supply chains, shaken global markets, and rising costs for consumers and businesses.
Half of those surveyed expect the world to be “turbulent or stormy” over the next two years, a sharp increase from last year’s report. Looking a decade ahead, most respondents predict prolonged global instability.
Recent shifts in US trade policy, including sweeping tariffs on imports, were cited as examples of how quickly global commerce can be thrown off balance. Meanwhile, rising debt levels and fears of asset bubbles have added to concerns that economic shocks could ripple across the world economy.
A Fragmented World Order on the Horizon
Beyond economics, the report suggests the global political landscape is becoming more fractured. Nearly 70% of respondents expect a “multipolar or fragmented order” over the next decade — meaning power will be more divided, cooperation harder to achieve, and international institutions under strain.
State-based armed conflict still ranks high among risks, but it has been overtaken by the economic tools nations increasingly deploy against one another. The WEF warns this erosion of cooperation could limit the world’s ability to respond to future crises, from financial crashes to humanitarian emergencies.
WEF Managing Director Saadia Zahidi described the report as an early warning system for an “age of competition” where global risks are compounding faster than the world’s ability to manage them. Still, she emphasized that these outcomes are not inevitable — cooperation could change the trajectory.
Technology, Society, and the Climate Add to the Pressure
While economic confrontation leads the list, other risks loom close behind. Misinformation and disinformation remain a major concern, followed by societal polarization and cybersecurity threats.
Artificial intelligence has surged dramatically in perceived risk, reflecting growing anxiety over its impact on jobs, security, and social stability. Inequality continues to rank as one of the most interconnected risks — capable of intensifying nearly every other global challenge.
Environmental threats fell slightly in short-term rankings, but over the next decade they dominate the severity outlook. Extreme weather, biodiversity loss, and critical changes to Earth’s systems are seen as the greatest long-term dangers, with three-quarters of respondents expecting environmental conditions to worsen.
The overarching message from the report is clear: the world is entering a period where economic, political, technological, and environmental risks are feeding into one another. Without stronger international cooperation, the WEF warns, today’s tensions could shape a far more unstable tomorrow.
